![]() ![]() But the first thing to understand is that there’s no straightforward way to make an airtight argument. We’ll talk about through some anti-luck thoughts and arguments shortly. Skill probably plays a much greater role than people typically think. You can change your mind about all this, but it’s tough to have a really principled, well-reasoned view on way or the other.īut people do tend to be extremely biased towards the luck side of things. The external narrative chalks things up to right place, right time. The internal narrative is that talented people got together, worked hard, and made things work. Others are inclined to find a greater degree of skill. ![]() Some people gravitate toward explaining things as lucky. skill question is thus almost just a bias that one can have. But obviously these experiments are impossible. If it worked just 1 time, you’d conclude it was just luck. If it works 1,000 out of 1,000 times, you’d conclude it was skill. Start Facebook 1,000 times under identical conditions. It would be great if you could run experiments. ![]() Statistical tools are meaningless if you have a sample size of one. skill question is, however, it’s very hard to get a good handle on. The biggest philosophical question underlying startups is how much luck is involved when they succeed. Errors and omissions are mine. Credit for good stuff is Peter’s entirely.Ĭlass 13 Notes Essay- You Are Not A Lottery Ticket Here is an essay version of my class notes from Class 13 of CS183: Startup. Peter Thiel’s CS183: Startup - Class 13 Notes Essay ![]()
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